- If we are talking about impacts that can be monetized (that is, treated as equivalent to flows of money - which is sometimes controversial in itself), there exist financial markets that allow you to save or borrow at a given rate of interest to obtain equivalent economic effects over time. Let's say that we have the choice to build a $100 million bridge today, that will deliver $2 million per year in "economic benefits" (time saved, expected number of lives saved, and so on) over the 100 year life of the bridge. Obviously, 100 years x $2 million per year = $200m, that's more than the $100m cost of the bridge, so we should build the bridge, right? Not so fast. We could simply stick the $100m in the bank, and we would wind up with *more* than $200 million after 100 years. (A lot more, in fact). Sticking the money in the bank is judged by cost benefit analysis to be "better" than building the bridge, even though we are comparing apples and oranges (that's what CBA does).
- People are impatient, and they would rather have benefits today than benefits tomorrow.
Assuming that all costs and benefits can be monetized, do the results of Kyoto CBA imply that it would be better for future generations if we DIDN'T do anything about climate change, but simply "stuck the money in the bank". What does that mean? In other words, what does the discount rate even MEAN when the timescales are so long that the costs and benefits accrue to completely different generations?
Now, for a lot of environmentalists, all this talk of discounting is devil's talk. Sustainability is their mantra, and if environmental impacts can be monetized at all (many think they cannot be) then they should be discounted at rate zero.
No comments:
Post a Comment