Iraq elections - so what?

I think the controversy about whether to reschedule Iraq's election misses the point. Bush seems to think that the election will change something, but I don't think it will. Right now, the insurgents (Sunnis mostly, with a sprinking of foreign Jihadis?) appear to be slaughtering the new Iraq National Guard (Shiites and Kurds mostly). As long as that continues, as long as the "government" cannot impose authority on the country (which they plainly cannot at this point - in fact the situation appears to be growing worse daily), then it doesn't matter if it is "elected" or not.

Given the performance of the Iraq National Guard and police against the insurgents, I think the US is going to be in Iraq for years to come. 140,000 troops are barely keeping a lid on things. Does anyone doubt that there would be a full fledged civil war 5 minutes after an American departure? When will the US be able to reduce its committment? Looks to me like *years* off.